So now we're at the point where the market research needs to change, and the question is how. Publishers have relied on very small groups (bookstore buyers, distributors, reviewers) to vet their selections and determine print runs because they're committed to short tail sales (which were the only important sales in a a huge percentage of published books, I concede).

Publishers have to decide on a new model of market research. I think they need a model which considers long-tail sales. Take, for instance, historical romance (since romance is a very strong and sustained market). Historical romance readers love series. There are many. But often a reader who comes into the middle of the series has to beg, borrow or steal to find the backlist. Unless the numbers of readers were large, the publisher saw no point in reprinting, and the bookseller didn't want to use up shelf space for the backlist (long tail sales). Both understandable, but frustrating to authors who were constantly asked "where can I find your older books?"

Amazon wasn't really a good answer, because that sent readers to used book stores, where neither publisher nor writer made a dime. E-books has changed that equation. Publishers (and perhaps booksellers) ought to look to understand long tail sales and what they mean to the bottom line. For example, B&N and Borders have computer Kiosks. What if they teamed with the publisher to offer Nook/Kindle/computer downloads of backlist titles for a nominal fee (99 cents per title, perhaps) when a newly released title is purchased? Long tail sales, plus ongoing market research.

Maybe during this market research paradigm shift, publishers should bring booksellers in as a partner — offering longer return times instead of none. Maybe offering a cafeteria choice — a slightly better discount for a no-return book than a book with return? I assume B&N and Borders have two options — return the book (short tail thinking), or sell it through the online marketplace (long tail thinking). I suppose I'm surprised that the online marketplace option isn't helping bookstores feed the bottom line, since it clearly works for Amazon. But part of that surprise is grounded in the fact that I'm still thinking in bookstore terms about books and, despite trying to wrap my mind around what's going on and what is going to happen a few years down the line, I haven't found good data (Amazon, free your data :-).

Kelly

PREDICTABLY IRRATIONAL by Dan Ariely is an amazing book all the way around, but has a fascinating chapter on why we buy things. He uses periodicals like The Wall Street Journal and The Economist as an example in bundling. You can buy The print for one price, and the online edition for a little less, or you can buy both for an overall savings. It is more expensive to buy both, but what buyers do is see the savings, that they are actually getting more for less. It's this whole A, A-, B choice thing.

I lent that book to a friend, so I can't quote it or explain as eloquently as he does. That's why it would be cool if I had bought the book and the e-book as a bundle.

Publishers need to quit kicking against the pricks. They need to release e-books at the same time as hardcovers, offer bundling for an overall savings (and it should be a good deal!) People like the e-books but we still like objects in our hands. I believe there will always be a place for books, but we need to make room for what's coming. Fight 'em or join 'em.

1.Nix returns. Book sellers are already getting 50% on the cover price, arguably the greatest return on investment in the entire publishing industry.

2.Monetize the backlist through P.O.D. and eBooks. Further this monetization structure by selling every public domain book available.

3. Conduct heavy market research geared towards the reader as the end customer (rather than the distributor or bookseller). Understand how other media impact book sales and what advertising avenues are worthwhile, and which are worthless (Here's a hint, even avid readers don't read Publishers Weekly, so publishers shouldn't waste their money advertising there).

4.Redesign the imprint structure at major publishers to tightly focus on a specific niche or vertical and engage in strong branding where the readers are. Define the market at small and independent presses to the same tight niche or vertical. Foster the notion of a publisher as a curator specific to the reader's tastes, and be as narrowly focused as possible.

5.Create a range of formats and release them simultaneously. Low prices/low value eBooks. Mass Market Paperbacks. Hardcovers. Audiobooks. Transmedia eBooks. High value special editions that appeal to the most demanding subset of buyers. By creating multiple revenue streams, publishers can capture the widest possible number of buyers during the period of peak demand and highest advertising. After peak demand, use P.O.D. and eBooks to capture long tail sales.

In a world of digital entertainment, when everything from the latest movies, music albums that haven't even been released yet and comic books are all available, for free, online simply by typing 'rapidsearch [name of thing you want for free]' into Google …

… FOR GOD'S SAKE DON'T MAKE YOUR PRODUCT, THE ONLY FORM OF ENTERTAINMENT IN THE WHOLE WIDE WORLD THAT IT'S STILL CHEAPER TO BUY THAN PIRATE, EASIER TO PIRATE.

Ebooks? Yes, do them. But for public domain novels, for non fiction things like travel guides that need updating and amending, for textbooks.

But if you want to sell – 'sell' here meaning 'get people to pay money for' – novels, then keep them cheap and keep them on paper.