"If everybody goes the Kindle route, you will have millions of self-published "authors" making about $30/year." (paraphrasing)

I think this unfortunate situation is, to some extent, inevitable. At the very least, you'll have this from people whose work is too bad for anyone to want to publish it. And from people with talent who are too lazy to make the work "publishable" quality. And from people too lazy (or pessimistic) to make the effort to pitch the story to agents.

That's a lot of people.

It's not particularly bad, unless you get to a point where they are joined by anyone whose work deviates from "what's hot right now".

As the supply of fiction skyrockets, some fall in quality is inevitable as the freshest new product is overwhelmed in a tsunami of mediocrity.

I'm sure there are solutions to all of this, though I can't think of one. Whoever DOES think of one will have a great opportunity. I can't wait to see what it is.

Books are cheaper to publish: supply goes up. People have less free time in general: demand goes down. Written fiction facing more, brand-new competition for the public's entertainment dollar: again, demand goes down.

This adds up to fiction being VERY tough to sell. For anyone. Agent, no agent, whatever. So, the question of whether it's worth the effort of finding one is becoming debatable.

It's already 1-2 hours per query, personalizing it, checking the agent's blog, looking over agent's recent titles, and double-checking all the agent's specs are met. I don't have the money or time to go jetting off to conferences, that's for sure. Few working parents do.

I'll keep trying to get an agent. I appreciate what the agent can do, but then again, I'd also appreciate having a helicopter. The result is the same: It's unlikely I'll ever get one.

I don't think there are enough (honest) agents out there. I think the low number of people who become literary agents is already evidence that literary agents are struggling. Agents will never disappear — at least, I certainly hope not — but over time, they will start to concentrate at the industry's high end, because the wise (who appreciate them) will pay more for them.

Low-end agents will, I think, ultimately go, because there simply won't be any money at the "low end" to support them. As for low-end authors, they'll all be self-publishing, not by choice but by necessity.

The resentful unpublished who imagine that The Death of Publishing As We Know It would constitute some kind of vindication or "payback" should be careful what they wish for. . .

It's not that I'm all about the money–it's just that a traditional publishing platform appeals to me because of the potential for a broader audience. One of the greatest things about writing, for me, is interacting with people after they read my stuff.

I did the self-publishing, POD thing a few years back, and predictably, it got me nowhere. Sure, a few copies got into the hands of freinds and family members, who somehow seemed impressed. But at this point, I'd rather take my chances with someone who can help me navigate the murky waters of publishing. Is it the most ideal scenario? No, I guess not. But what is, these days?

Wow.

I don't think literary agents are going anywhere.

@Catherine – not having an agent doesn't in any way mean doing it yourself. I am part of a 26-strong collective. And because we come from 8 countries in different time zones if ever any of us has a dark night of the soul, there is always another of us at the other end of the e-mail to listen. We learn from eackh other, help and advise each other. We are lucky to have a professional designer in our midst for covers, and a guy who rnus a PR company, but if we didn't we'd outsource these to people we'd chosen and trust. DIY doesn't mean do it alone. It means retaining creative control. And I'm the first to admit it's not for everyone, suits very few genres, and that it works for us because we have very common goals that focus our individual voices, and work right at the literary-est end ofliterary fiction where it borders experimental art and invovles collaboration with music and film; and because several of us love performing live and think that having a real audience listening to us read is one of the pleasures not pains of being a writer. We are happy doing it that way -some of us may decide to go t'other way at some point, others won't. My real point is that our way suits us, we are very serious writers, want to make a living from our writing eventually, but don't need an agent, so the generalisation of the article isn't strictly true. Like I say, I like every agent I know – as a breed they are passionate about books – what's not to like about that?